Gearing Up For the Gameweek

Where I discuss my thoughts on the upcoming gameweek.  I talk about what players and teams to avoid and which to seek out for roster selection.

Gameweek 8

One thing I’m adding to this iteration of the gameweek preview is including the amount of shots and likely score line that my predictive model indicates.  Please note due to small sample size some of the numbers might not be as solid as I like, but that’s how these things work.  All shots and goal expectations will be rounded numbers.  If numbers seem off I will put an explanation as to why.  This post will likely be updated before the weekend when more information is available regarding injuries and projected starting XI's.  I will have a note at the bottom to designate if I think there will be any rotations worth noting.


Everton (Shots 16, Goals 2) vs Aston Villa (Shots 7, Goals 2)

Everton has a high concede rate at home, and they commit a lot of defensive errors.  If they cut down on that it wouldn’t surprise me to see them muster a clean sheet this week, but certainly not something I’d want to bet on.

Outside of Baines (4.7k) I don’t particularly like anyone defensively on either team, however if  Coleman(3.9k) starts he may warrant a look.  Everton is prone to defensive lapses and is suffering from injury problems, along with Howard being way overpriced.  If you want to take a massive risk you can pick up Guzan (3.2k) and pray he stands on his head while not conceding, but I expect Villa to give up at least one goal.  I’m still high on McGeady (4.5k)  and he offers a potential value midfield differential despite his poor performance last week.  Naismith (6.8k) may be a little too expensive at this stage for my taste to pick up but he is on good form.  I think Lukaku (9.7k) may be the best option if you want a forward from this game, but he could be hard to fit in with other luxury players forcing you to take Naismith instead to get exposure to Everton's offense.  The one thing to look for is if Eto’o (4.4k) gets the nod over Lukaku as central striker.  He’s rated very highly in my model and still a great poacher, and could likely be one of the best value picks this week.  Although my model predicts Villa to score 2 goals I don’t like any one from their team even if Benteke(8.6k) gets a start over Agbonglahor(6.1k) or Weimann(5k).  He’s way too expensive and there are better options from other games in my opinion since Villa will likely not get many chances.

Possible Rotation - Eto'o in for Lukaku.  Coleman back from injury starting over Hibbert.


Crystal Palace (Shots 14, Goals 1) vs Chelsea (Shots 10, Goals 3)

Before running my predictive model for shots and goals I was leaning towards liking Crystal Palace in this game.  The large goal expectation for Chelsea stems from their absurdly high conversion rate.

I’m hoping this will be the game where Chelsea finally regress a bit in their conversion rate.  Crystal Palace has been pretty good offensively this year so I could see this ending in a 1-1 draw.  I personally may try to fade this game since I think people are going to all pile on the Chelsea bandwagon.  Many of the usual suspects make good choices, and will likely be highly owned.  Willian(5.5k)/Schurrle(5.5k) or Oscar (6.2k) are some of the best value midfield options available and probably will continue to be no matter who they play.  Hazard(8.4k)/Fabregas(9.2k) are the luxury options from midfield, but as I’ve said I’m basically going to be avoiding almost all luxury midfield options.  In addition to that Fabregas and Hazard don’t rate as high as other MF options.  Up front you have Costa(12.2k) if he starts (I don’t think he will), or possibly Remy(5.7k).  If Remy starts I will be hard pressed not to take him, but will likely be avoiding Costa if he is starting as I think he is due for some regression on his conversion rate.  On defense, as always, Ivanovic(4.4k) makes a reliable pick that will almost always have good production.  Pair him with whoever starts out of Courtois (4.6k) or Cech(4.4k) for a likely solid defensive combo.

For Crystal Palace, I don’t particularly like anyone unless you want to go for a high risk strat of grabbing Speroni(3.3k) and hoping Palace squeak out a 1-0 and pair him with Ward (2.5k). In the midfield as always Puncheon(5.1k) is a solid bet for a consistent performance and high floor.  He is averaging double digit points per game at a decently cheap price.

Possible Rotation: Willian in for Schurrle.  Remy in for Costa.


Arsenal (Shots 20, Goals 2) vs Hull City (Shots 7, Goals 1)

My model shows this game being way closer than I expected.  This is due to Arsenal having an average conversion rate while conceding at a rate that is slightly worrying.  Hull on the other hand has been conceding at a very low rate on the road while converting at a little higher than league average.

Given how many shots arsenal can expect and how few Hull will likely take it won’t be a bad idea to load up on Arsenal Players.  With Ozil out injured this is the perfect game to pick up on Cazorla(6.4k) as a mid price midfield option.  He’s ranked very highly in my model, and since he hasn’t produced I expect he won’t be that highly owned.  He will likely be on set piece duty, and possibly penalty duty as well wish is a massive plus.  For forwards I rate Sanchez (9.5k) higher than Welbeck(9.6k) but you really can’t go wrong with either, and you’ll likely want to have exposure to both in some capacity.  On the other hand Oxlade-Chamberlain(5.8k) offers an amazing mid price forward option and a great differential option from this game.  Gibbs(3.9k) and Bellerin(3.2k) both offer good attacking options and potential clean sheet bonus for defensive picks from this game.  Of the two, I like Bellerin the most as he is cheaper, and will be lesser owned.   The only downside is that they tend to attack more down Gibbs side.  In goal Szczesny (4.9k) is the highest priced GK option.  I think there are better options for cheaper, but you’ll want to include him in any of your Arsenal stacks.

For Hull, the one player I will mention is Robertson(4.1k) as he is listed as a defender in a 3-5-2 so he will largely play in an advanced roll.  Other than that I don’t particularly like anyone from Hull and would recommend staying away since there are so many other teams that will likely put in multi goal performances.

Possible Rotation: Monreal for Koscielny.  Bellerin for Chambers (Confirmed since Chambers is suspended).  Sanchez on the bench possibly or not full fitness due to late in week Friendly, likely replaced by Podolski, Sanogo, or Campbell. 


Newcastle (Shots 31, Goals 2) vs Leicester City (Shots 7, Goals 1)

Well, this one is a doozy.  Here we have two teams who are on opposite sides of average performance.  Leicester is converting at an unsustainably high rate, while conceding at an unsustainably low rate.  Leicester already started to show signs of regression by conceding 2 to Burnley last week and I expect that to continue this week.  On the other hand Newcastle has been doing the exact opposite, conceding at a very high rate, while scoring at a conversion rate below the league average. 

Unfortunately the cat is out of the bag regarding Cisse (7.2k) as he was someone I was waiting for the right time to go bullish on.  This is the perfect game for that, but I fear he is going to have very high ownership.  That still won’t stop me from having exposure to him though.  I do worry that since he is still just coming back from injury he may get subbed early if there are any fitness issue.    Gouffran(4.7k) or Riviere(4.2k) could offer good differentials, but Cisse ranks so much higher in my model that I can’t justify taking them over Cisse in cash games.  In the midfield Colback (3.6k) or Obertan (4.5k) offer good options with Colback being one of the best value picks this week.  Unlikely to get a start, but a personal favorite of mine, is Cabella (5.5k) who ranks in the top 10 in my midfielder model, and should be a definite pick up if he plays.  On defense Haidara(3.4k) is the highest ranked in my model out of all defenders without benefiting from the 1GA or CS bonus so he could have a MASSIVE upside for GPPs.  Unfortunately it looks like Dummett(2.5k) may be selected ahead of him.  Janmaat (3.3k) will likely start if he is fit, and would make a great pair with Haidara if both start..  In goal Krul(3.9k) may be a little overpriced, but will likely not be owned very much in GPPs.  He is undergoing a fitness test and should he not start Elliot(3k) will take his place and is a bargain price for a great GPP option.

On Leicester City I would recommend proceeding with caution.  Newcastle hasn’t been great defensively, but they have also been a little unlucky so being on the road it could be a good idea to fade Leicester.  I think people may bandwagon and pick up Mahrez (5.5k) and he still is amongst the top 5 midfielders in my model so he will likely have a high floor.  Vardy(6.3k) and Ulloa(7k) will still be threats, but again I think this could be a good week to avoid them as they are a little overpriced for being on the road even if it is vs Newcastle.  I’d definitely avoid anyone from Leicester's defense.


Southampton (Shots 14, Goals 2) vs Sunderland (Shots 10, Goals 0)

Sunderland has a low road conversion rate, while Southampton has one of the lowest home concede rates in the league giving Sunderland the least likelihood of scoring out of any team this weekend.

Needless to say Southampton likely offers the best route to shutout points from Forster (4.1k), Bertrand(4.2k), and Clyne(4.5k). In addition to that Clyne and Bertrand both have great offensive production so I expect them to be highly owned and an absolute must in cash games.  In the midfield Tadic (8k) still remains the best midfielder in my model and he hasn’t even scored a goal yet.  He is an absolute must have for cash games, and if he end up producing a goal / assist combo he could be a great asset for GPPs as well.  In the forward department Mane(6.7k)  ranks higher than Pelle(8.1k) but the Italian is on very good form still and you can’t go wrong with either.  Personally I would grab Mane due to the fact I think Pelle may be higher owned and Mane has a higher floor.


Burnley (Shots 8, Goals 0) vs West Ham (Shots 15, Goals 2)

On paper I absolutely love West Ham.  Their main players have looked great both on the road and at home and I think they will likely not be widely owned. 

Defensively West Ham offers the best low price stack with Adrian (3.4k), Cresswell (2.6k), and Jenkinson(2k).  This is one game where I think largely ignoring home field advantage is okay this week.  In the midfield Downing(6.6k) is one of the most reliable performers this season next to Tadic.  I also like Amalfitano (3k) as a sneaky value pick for GPPs in a match where West Ham will largely be on the front foot.  At forward Valencia(6.9k) and Sakho (6.3k) are both great options, but I rate Sakho a little higher and given his better pricing I think he is the better choice.  I don’t think Vaz Te(2.8k) or Zarate(5.8k) will get a start, but both rate highly for their price point if they do get the nod.

I think people may try to go with Burnley as a potential differential option, and it isn’t a bad train of thought, but I honestly think West Ham is one of the few teams who I trust on the road to perform well.  If you decide to go that route I’d recommend Heaton (3.8k) and Trippier(3.8k).  Offensively Jutkiewicz(5.2k) is a top 20 forward in my model and will not be owned by many people, unfortunately his floor is probably too low to use in cash games.


As always make sure to follow me on twitter (@soccerdfs) for all lineups an hour before game time as well as possible last minute value suggestions.                                      

Gameweek 7: Part 2 Sunday Slate

This will be part 2 of my Gameweek 7 Preview and will cover all the Sunday games available for Draftkings, that means I won't be covering West Ham vs QPR.  If you happen to be playing on other sites where this game is available I highly recommend Downing + Sakho/Valencia stack.  Anyways on to the Sunday games!


Chelsea vs Arsenal

This is a tough one for me as I still have nightmares about the last trip Arsenal took to Stamford Bridge.  The tempo for this entire game will be set in the first 15 minutes.  If Arsenal avoid conceding early I see this being a one goal contest with Chelsea likely winning 2-1 or 1-0.  If Chelsea scores early it could get ugly for Arsenal like it did last year.  Arsenal really lacks a good defensive midfielder so it could be trouble if Chelsea presses them high up the pitch and doesn't let their midfielders have time with the ball on their feet.  The on caveat to last years game is Arsenal will have a ton of speed up top and that may prove their saving grace.  Mourinho may be unlike to condense the pitch and high press as much as last year because Sanchez/Welbeck/Ox offer a ton of pace in behind.  With that said if you invest in anyone in this game it should obviously be Costa (11.6k) and one of Willian(5.2K) or Schurrle(5k).  I will mostly be staying away from this game and that is probably a leak, but I just can't root against Arsenal so I will hope to fade it.  If you do want to load up on this game, Ivanovic(4.1k) is the standard defensive play.  I'd be tempted to avoid Fabregas (9.2k) and Hazard(8.2k) because neither has really been producing and are really too high a price tag when there are better options available which allow you to load up on luxury forwards from other games or Costa from this one.  I'd avoid Arsenal all together, but I could definitely see a scenario where Welbeck(8.7k)/Sanchez(8.5k) go off again but it is too risky a choice given the fixture difficulty.  


Man U vs Everton

So it looks quite like Man United is this years Liverpool of last year.  Poor on defense and full blown attacking talent.  They don't press as hard as Pool did last year, but they still have offensive talent in abundance.  Rooney being out is actually a blessing in disguise as I think Mata(7.9k) is infinitely better suited to play in the hole behind van Persie(9.6k) and Falcao(9.4k).  Mata is going to be one of the most owned players this week and you will most likely need to have some good exposure to him, along with one or both of Falcao or van Persie.  I'm inclined to lean towards RvP instead of Falcao even though I rate Falcaro higher simply due to van Persie being nailed on penalty taker.  The other option in this game is Di Maria (11.5k), but like I said previously I've decided to avoid luxury priced midfielders this week and with mata playing higher up the pitch at a lesser price I think he is a better choice.  Thankfully Man U's defense is pretty poor so their may be some value to be had on Everton even though they are the road team.  Much depends on where their line up Lukaku (9.1k).  If Martinez goes full retard and lines him up on the wing I think it will be a disaster for Everton. However if they line him up centrally with McGeady(4.2k) and Atsu(4.5k) on the wings you've a great potential combo that will give ManU's backline fits.  Naismith(6k) is an option to playing behind Lukaku but he takes up a forward spot and is too expensive given other players of same or lesser price.  The other wild card in this game is Baines (4.2k) who is on set piece duty so even if they get 2+ goals hung on them if he scores or assists from a set piece he's basically earned his keep.  He also takes penalties so that is something to consider as well, I consider him a high risk high reward pick that is a good player to slot in if you plan on doing multiple lineups.


Spurs vs Southampton

I've firmly on the Southampton bandwagon all year.  I haven't decided if I'm going to get off yet or not.  Spurs has been fairly poor at home this year losing 3-0 to pool, 1-0 to Brom, and only tied Besiktas in their midweek tie.  Southampton has yet to be kept off the scoresheet on the road this year averaging almost 2 goals a game on the road.  I think a lot of people may avoid this match up which means it could offer some great value.  Unfortunately Adebayor has been poor up front so if you grab anyone from Spurs it should be someone from their midfield in Chadli(7.3k) / Eriksen(6.3k) / Lamela(7.2k).  If you are taking any one from this game it should be someone from Soton probably.  I typically recommend avoiding away teams, but Soton has proven they can get results on the road.  Clyne(3.9k) and Bertrend(4.5k) offer some decent defensive options, but I'm not sure I'd go for them with some of the cheaper options available that have home fixtures. Tadic(8k) in midfield is close to must have status and still hasn't hit the price yet where he might be too expensive.  Mane (6.4k) rightfully hit a huge price jump so I would be inclined to grab Pelle(8.3k) over him for your forward spot in a stack.  The real value pick here is Davis(3k) or Wanyama(3.8k).  Davis has some set piece duty so he could offer an incredibly nice differential for a dirt cheap price.  Him or Mahrez (Leicester) are the 2 players I'm keeping my eye on and will look to incorporate to offer huge dividends this weekend.


That covers it all, best of luck to everyone this weekend and hopefully you make some money, as long as you finish below me of course!

 

Gameweek 7 Preview: Saturday Slate

It's time for gameweek 7 and this weeks slates offers a ton of options for stacking due to so many favorite home teams.  The key to this week will be mixing the highest scoring favorite in with the best performers from the lesser picked games.  Lets get into it and break things down game by game.  This will be a 2 part article with the Saturday slate first, followed by Sunday slate later today.


Aston Villa vs Man City

This has the potential to be a trap game as I think many people will load up on City player due to Villa's consecutive 3-0 defeats in the league.  I personally wouldn't want too much exposure to this match, but Villa will be under siege so taking some of City's offensive players in at least one lineup is a good play.  One of Aguero (10.2k), Dzeko(8.9k), or Jovetic(6.6k) along with whoever starts out of Milner (4.5k)/Navas(4.9k) or Silva(7.7k) is a good option to stack.  I've been trying to avoid higher priced midfielders so I might air toward Milner/Navas as they won't need as many points to justify their pick.  On defense Hart(4.7k)/Caballero(3.5k) along with Zabaletta(4k) or Clichy(3.1k)/Kolarov(4.5k) offer good stacking opportunities.  I only recommend getting the City GK if Caballero starts simply because there are better priced options than Hart with a higher ceiling due to not facing many shots.  Kolarov might be a must have if he starts due to his set piece duties, and a start is likely since Clichy has starting the last 2 games and will be on short rest.  Just avoid Villa all together and hope they pull off a 0-0 or 1-0 if you decide to fade City a lot.  City did have a midweek game, but it was at home so that won't hurt them as much as other teams who had to travel for their midweek Europe games.


Hull City vs Crystal Palace

This is actually an interesting game as both teams have shown a propensity for scoring, and not so much for defending.  This is going to be one of 3 games where you will find the best value picks and differentials to go along with one of you favorite stacks.  Hull has scored at least 2 goals in 4 of their last 5 home games including vs City as well as giving up at least one, and Palace has scored 3 in their last 3 on the road.  Hull's starting keeper is out so Harper will be stepping in so I think it is a good idea to avoid their defense all together even though Robertson(3.2k) rates pretty well.  The value in these games will definitely come from the budget midfielders and forwards both teams have.  For Hull Jelavic (5.5k) is too pricey and not as highly rated as Hernandez(4.9k), so I would definitely recommend Hernandez as a value forward pick that a lot of people won't consider getting.  I don't like any of Hull's midfielders.  Crystal Palace on the other hand offers a handful of great value players in midfield and up front, and even though they are on the road they haven't been kept scoreless while on the road this season.  Puncheon(5.2k) rates in the top 15 of my model and combos great with Campbell(4.5k) if you are looking for a contrarian pick.  Bolasie(5.5k) and Jedinak (5.6k) are also options but are over priced compared to Puncheon/Campbell so I would stay away from either.


Leicester City vs Burnley

I love this game, there are just piles of value to be had here as Burnley is absolutely atrocious.  They just lost to a Brom team 4-0 who has a typically bad scoring record so far this season.  Leicester City even though they were handed a tough road loss vs an underrated Palace team, has not lost to Burnley in their last 6 contests and has only failed to score once at home so far this season.  I expect Leicester to really be on the front foot this game and due to Burnleys inability to score they offer a great cheap defensive stack option with DaLaet(3.4k), Konchesky(3k), and Schmeichel (3.7k).  In the midfield Cambiasso (5.2k) and Mahrez(3k) rate similarly, but Mahrez is much cheaper so if he gets a start he is my value pick of the week.  You'll want to pair them with one of Ulloa (7.5k), Vardy (6.5k), or Nugent(4.5k).  Vardy ranks the highest just outside the top 20, but Ulloas PK duty may put him higher.  Nugent is cheaper but ranks much further down the list but also has potential PK duty.  Ultimately it comes down to picking which one fits best price wise with the rest of your lineup.  Personally I'm partial to Ulloa as the guy seems to have a poachers knack, while Vardy / Nugent are better options when Leicester will be on the counter a lot.  Stay far away from Burnley.


Liverpool vs West Brom

I think this is one of the other games that has a potential to be a trap game.  Liverpool are a public team and are thus heavily favored.  Brom on the other hand apart from their 3-0 loss to the Swans have performed admirably on the road holding both Spurs and Southampton scoreless.  I don't expect much from West Brom offensively even though they just put 4 past Burnley and 3 past Hull since those were both home games so I'm not sure I would recommend any of their offensive players as there will be better options elsewhere.  A stack of Moreno(4.3k)/Manquillo(4.1k), Sterling(8.8k)/Gerrard(7.1k), and Balotelli(8.6k) could pay massive dividends if their offense actually beings to click.  Ultimately though I think without the dynamic of Sturridge to play alongside Balotelli their attacking play seems to be impotent.  I will most likely be fully fading them save for maybe one lineup.  My one hesitation from fully fading them is  Balotelli has probably been unlucky to score and ranks highly on my model due to having so many shots and fouls won.  My eye test disagrees with this a bit as most of his shots aren't from good positions and historically he hasn't had a good conversion rate.  When Sturridge comes back I plan on being much more bullish on Liverpool.  The problem with Pool is all their players are basically approaching the luxury price and I think going full value with luxury options sprinkled in is a better option than stacking a lot of upper mid range priced players with fewer value and luxury options.


Sunderland vs Stoke

This may be one of the few games this weekend that doesn't have a lot of goals in it.  Sunderland actually has some high rated options, but they simply don't have the propensity for being a multigoal team.  The Larsson(5.9k) and Wickham(4.7k) combo because of this is a little too pricey for my taste and doesn't really seem prime to offer a multi goal combination.  Pair that with the fact Sunderland hasn't won in their last 5 and have given up 2+ goals at home in 3 of their last 5 this could be another game where you may find some semblance of value on the road team.  However, if you do want to take a gamble you can do so on the Mannone(4.5k) and  Van Aanholt(3.2k) combo but I wouldn't recommend it.  The value in this game could actually come from Stoke who have scored in all of their last 5 away games and were unbeaten in that run as well.  I personally might be fading them all together as I don't like getting on road teams, but this may be a situation where there could be some value as I think they may largely be on the front foot this match.  The 3 options you will want to look at is Moses (5.5k) who is the highest rated player in my model (barely edging out Tadic), Crouch (5.8k) who might be a little too expensive but does  find himself in the top 30 of fwd options, and Arnautovic (4k) who is reasonably priced and will likely not be owned by many.  Ultimately I think if I take anyone it would be Moses as I am super high on him right now and think he could possibly be fixture proof.  I'm not sure this is the week to jump on the bandwagon as I'd prefer to do it in a home game,  but mark my words he's going to be a player that will put up some consistently good point hauls this season.


Swansea vs Newcastle

This game could make or break me this week.  One of my targets this year has been teams playing at home vs Newcastle since their defense has been so woeful.  They also haven't particularly shown much offensively either even though I'm quite fond of Cabella.  Add in all the drama with their manager, and this makes for a perfect storm to pick against.  I think many people we be hugely down on the Swans due to their recent defeats to Southampton, Chelsea, and tie vs Sunderland.  Keep in mind 2 of these were road games with one of them being against the league leaders.  Also the Southampton games is skewed due to the Bony red card.  They've kept clean sheets in 4 of their last 5 at home and scored 3 in two of those games.  I've been high on Bony(5.9k), but he hasn't produced yet after finishing the season emphatically last year.  I jump off on him recently due to the road fixtures, but now is the time to jump back on.  Either him or Gomis(5.9k) will start and at the same price it is a no brainer to pick one of them for your Swansea stack.  Unfortunately a full defensive stack isn't possible due to Richards replacing Rangel and is listed as a Midfielder, but Fabianski (4k) offers the best value next to Schmeichel and Caballero (if starting).  You will want to pair him with Taylor(3.4k) if you go for a Swans stack.  In the midfield Sigurdsson(7.4k) is the obvious pick but if you need to save money Dyer (5.5k) and Routledge(4.5k) offer cheaper options.  I think eventually if/when Newcastle turns their season around they will offer some good value picks between Janmaat/Cabella/Cisse but it won't be this weekend, especially not on the road.


That's it for part one of the preview.  I have to go take care of some errands and will put up part 2 later this afternoon.

Gameweek 6

This is going to be a weekly article where I briefly review my thoughts on each game eligible for DKs contests and also give possible suggestions for players who could offer good returns.


Chelsea vs Aston Villa

Look for Chelsea to be in full on castle siege mode.  They are the team with the most shots in the premier league, and this game will just amplify that.  Also expect Villa's lack of offensive output to continue as they will be hard pressed to get many efforts on goal.  Defensively Courtois(5k) and Ivanovic(4.1k) are reliable but pricey pickups.  Offensively Costa(11.2k) will be a must have in some of your lineups as he will certainly get a handful of opportunities.  In the midfield Fabregas(9.2k) and Hazard(8.3k) offer good premium options with Schurrle(4.7k) and possibly Oscar (5k) being a good value selections.  Schurrle is actually ranked higher in my predictive model than Fabregas or Hazard, but may largely be due to low sample size.  Stay far away from any Villa players.  One thing to note is that Villa has been very stout defensively this year bar for last game, so you may want a lineup or two that can fade this game in case Villa is able to manage a 0-0 or 0-1 loss.


Crystal Palace vs Leicester City

On paper this looks to be a goal fest as neither team has performed too well defensively, while both have been scoring quite consistently.  The obvious pick from this game for most people will be Ulloa (7.2K), but be hesitant with him as his conversion rate is unsustainable and this may be a good game to fade him given his rise in price and go with Nugent(4k) instead for a Leicester player.  If Zaha (3.1k) plays he is a good value differential pick, otherwise Jedinak(5.2k - spot kick duty), Puncheon(4.5k - ranked above Fabregas in my model), Bolasie(4.8k), or Chamakh(4.9k) could off some good value options.  I'd probably recommend sprinkling a Crystal Palace attacking option amongst one or two of your lineups as I don't think they will be selected by many people.


Hull City vs Manchester City

Hull has been conceded quite a bit this season since moving to 4 at the back.  They may revert to a 3-5-2 that could see them playing more defensively for this game.  Even with that said I'd still be tempted to stay away from Chester(2.4k) and McGregor(3k) as value differentials. Unless, of course, you really want to take a punt and try to Stack up heavily with high priced forwards/midfielders.  On the other hand I do like Aguero(9.9K) for this game as he ranks very high on my model.  In the Midfield if you need a value option you should be watching to see if Navas(4.2k) starts and immediately snap him up, otherwise you can consider taking Silva(7.7k), but he is probably too high priced for my liking.  For City's defense Kolarov(4.5k) ranks #2 in defenders in my model, but is probably too high priced, Clichy(3.1k) could offer a good differntial.  Ultimately I think if you want to pick up someone from City's defense you should grab Mangala (2k), who offers a super cheap option that won't need many points to justify his pickup.  He also could potentially be a set piece threat, of course this is if he gets the nod to start.


Manchester United vs West Ham

You have a goal, and you have a goal, and you have a goal, EVERYONE HAS A GOAL!.  This game along with Chelsea's have the highest over under for expected goals in most betting markets.  I wouldn't touch anyone on either defense, but there are definitely some great attacking options here.  On United's side Di Maria(10.7k) is one of the top ranked midfielders and will probably continue his consistent output.  For offense whoever starts out of Rooney(10.2)k, Falcao(8.2k), or RvP(8.9k) are all good luxury options (they all could start with Rooney in a withdrawn role).  Falcao being subbed out early last game may be a good reason to take Rooney or RvP over him, but any are a good choice likely to have some production.  However, the real value in this game lies on the West Ham side.  Downing (7k) is ranked very high on my predictive model, and given the state  of United with injuries and their defensive woes he could really shine this game.  This is especially true if they end up starting Fellaini at the bottom of the midfield diamond.  Up front Sakho(5.9k) and Valencia(6.8k) both offer appetizing midrange options against a shoddy United defense.  Note:  I hear Sakho may have an injury nag and may not play so buyer beware and Valencia ranks in the top 10 in my model.


Southampton vs QPR

This is the other game the base of your lineups should be built around.  QPR gives up goals for fun on the road having been outscored 0-8 in their last 2 trips (Spurs and ManU).  Forster(4.3k) offers the best option in goal for the price, and Bertrand(4k) and Clyne(4.1k) are both stellar defensive selections due to possible clean sheet and their abilities to get forward.  In the midfield Tadic(6.7k) is the highest rated midfielder in my model and probably a must have since he plays in an advanced role on the left wing.  Schneiderlein (5.9k) could be a good option if you need to save money to spend elsewhere, but I think Tadic is a must have this week.  In the front line you have Pelle (7.3k) who looks to be in fantastic form and I would be shocked if he didn't notch a goal or assist this week.  This brings me to my possible secret weapon for the week, and that is the dirt cheap priced Mane (3k).  Picking up Mane instead of Pelle will allow you to get more luxury players and won't have to contribute much at all to reach the ideal 2.5 pt/$ ratio to be a good pick.  With Long's health questionable, you should look to nab Mane in at least one lineup if he starts since that sort of value is rarely available.  For QPR, stay away from them as if they were infected with Ebola. DO NOT WANT.


Sunderland vs Swansea

The Swans who I have been high on this year have come off two fairly abject losses.  They look worse at first glance than they actually were especially when you take Bony's red into account.  One of my basic strategies is to stay away from road teams in general, especially in close matches odds wise vs teams that are decent defensively.  This is basically the poster child for that type of game.  Swans are amongst the leagues worst in shots and chances conceded so I really like Sunderland to pull a bit of an upset here.  I could see this having a 1-0 set piece goal written all over it.  For Sunderland Van Aanholt (2.6k) offers a good differential punt for a clean sheet, and also gets forward well.  Other than that you can grab Larsson (6.2k) or Wickham (4.7k) if you need a value differential as both are in the top 25 for midfielders and forwards in my model but there are options with similar price and better match-ups available.  For the Swans I'd seriously recommend staying away all together as this has trap game written all over it, however Fabianski(3.7k) offers a good cheap GK option if you need to save money.  Also if you are taking a punt on him you might as well stack him with Rangel(3.6k) or Taylor(3.4k) as they are mid priced defenders.  For offense Bony (6k) is one of my highest rated forwards, but I've jumped off the bandwagon for him in results oriented fashion for at least the time being till they are back at home.  Again all together I'd just recommend avoiding the Swans.


Arsenal vs Spuds

Being an Arsenal fan, and having Spurs abject performance last week potentially cost me piles of money, I'd like nothing more than Arsenal to give them the business in this game.  Arsenal are coming off their best game of the season against a good defensive Villa team, so I really like one of Welbeck(8.6k) or Sanchez(8.4k) in this game as they both rate extremely high in my models.  For the midfield I've temporarily jumped off the Ramsey(6.9k) badwagon until he regains some of his form, but he is still rated significantly higher than Ozil(8k).  Interestingly enough, I have Cazorla(4.7k) as the highest rated of the arsenal midfielders and has the potential to be an amazing differential as most players will take Ozil or Ramsey if they want someone from the arsenal midfield.  For Spurs? Fuck em all, if you plan on picking any of them I hope you lose anyway. (Eriksen or Lamela are the only picks you should even start to consider if you make it down that road).