Gearing Up For the Gameweek

Where I discuss my thoughts on the upcoming gameweek.  I talk about what players and teams to avoid and which to seek out for roster selection.

Gameweek 6

This is going to be a weekly article where I briefly review my thoughts on each game eligible for DKs contests and also give possible suggestions for players who could offer good returns.

Chelsea vs Aston Villa

Look for Chelsea to be in full on castle siege mode.  They are the team with the most shots in the premier league, and this game will just amplify that.  Also expect Villa's lack of offensive output to continue as they will be hard pressed to get many efforts on goal.  Defensively Courtois(5k) and Ivanovic(4.1k) are reliable but pricey pickups.  Offensively Costa(11.2k) will be a must have in some of your lineups as he will certainly get a handful of opportunities.  In the midfield Fabregas(9.2k) and Hazard(8.3k) offer good premium options with Schurrle(4.7k) and possibly Oscar (5k) being a good value selections.  Schurrle is actually ranked higher in my predictive model than Fabregas or Hazard, but may largely be due to low sample size.  Stay far away from any Villa players.  One thing to note is that Villa has been very stout defensively this year bar for last game, so you may want a lineup or two that can fade this game in case Villa is able to manage a 0-0 or 0-1 loss.

Crystal Palace vs Leicester City

On paper this looks to be a goal fest as neither team has performed too well defensively, while both have been scoring quite consistently.  The obvious pick from this game for most people will be Ulloa (7.2K), but be hesitant with him as his conversion rate is unsustainable and this may be a good game to fade him given his rise in price and go with Nugent(4k) instead for a Leicester player.  If Zaha (3.1k) plays he is a good value differential pick, otherwise Jedinak(5.2k - spot kick duty), Puncheon(4.5k - ranked above Fabregas in my model), Bolasie(4.8k), or Chamakh(4.9k) could off some good value options.  I'd probably recommend sprinkling a Crystal Palace attacking option amongst one or two of your lineups as I don't think they will be selected by many people.

Hull City vs Manchester City

Hull has been conceded quite a bit this season since moving to 4 at the back.  They may revert to a 3-5-2 that could see them playing more defensively for this game.  Even with that said I'd still be tempted to stay away from Chester(2.4k) and McGregor(3k) as value differentials. Unless, of course, you really want to take a punt and try to Stack up heavily with high priced forwards/midfielders.  On the other hand I do like Aguero(9.9K) for this game as he ranks very high on my model.  In the Midfield if you need a value option you should be watching to see if Navas(4.2k) starts and immediately snap him up, otherwise you can consider taking Silva(7.7k), but he is probably too high priced for my liking.  For City's defense Kolarov(4.5k) ranks #2 in defenders in my model, but is probably too high priced, Clichy(3.1k) could offer a good differntial.  Ultimately I think if you want to pick up someone from City's defense you should grab Mangala (2k), who offers a super cheap option that won't need many points to justify his pickup.  He also could potentially be a set piece threat, of course this is if he gets the nod to start.

Manchester United vs West Ham

You have a goal, and you have a goal, and you have a goal, EVERYONE HAS A GOAL!.  This game along with Chelsea's have the highest over under for expected goals in most betting markets.  I wouldn't touch anyone on either defense, but there are definitely some great attacking options here.  On United's side Di Maria(10.7k) is one of the top ranked midfielders and will probably continue his consistent output.  For offense whoever starts out of Rooney(10.2)k, Falcao(8.2k), or RvP(8.9k) are all good luxury options (they all could start with Rooney in a withdrawn role).  Falcao being subbed out early last game may be a good reason to take Rooney or RvP over him, but any are a good choice likely to have some production.  However, the real value in this game lies on the West Ham side.  Downing (7k) is ranked very high on my predictive model, and given the state  of United with injuries and their defensive woes he could really shine this game.  This is especially true if they end up starting Fellaini at the bottom of the midfield diamond.  Up front Sakho(5.9k) and Valencia(6.8k) both offer appetizing midrange options against a shoddy United defense.  Note:  I hear Sakho may have an injury nag and may not play so buyer beware and Valencia ranks in the top 10 in my model.

Southampton vs QPR

This is the other game the base of your lineups should be built around.  QPR gives up goals for fun on the road having been outscored 0-8 in their last 2 trips (Spurs and ManU).  Forster(4.3k) offers the best option in goal for the price, and Bertrand(4k) and Clyne(4.1k) are both stellar defensive selections due to possible clean sheet and their abilities to get forward.  In the midfield Tadic(6.7k) is the highest rated midfielder in my model and probably a must have since he plays in an advanced role on the left wing.  Schneiderlein (5.9k) could be a good option if you need to save money to spend elsewhere, but I think Tadic is a must have this week.  In the front line you have Pelle (7.3k) who looks to be in fantastic form and I would be shocked if he didn't notch a goal or assist this week.  This brings me to my possible secret weapon for the week, and that is the dirt cheap priced Mane (3k).  Picking up Mane instead of Pelle will allow you to get more luxury players and won't have to contribute much at all to reach the ideal 2.5 pt/$ ratio to be a good pick.  With Long's health questionable, you should look to nab Mane in at least one lineup if he starts since that sort of value is rarely available.  For QPR, stay away from them as if they were infected with Ebola. DO NOT WANT.

Sunderland vs Swansea

The Swans who I have been high on this year have come off two fairly abject losses.  They look worse at first glance than they actually were especially when you take Bony's red into account.  One of my basic strategies is to stay away from road teams in general, especially in close matches odds wise vs teams that are decent defensively.  This is basically the poster child for that type of game.  Swans are amongst the leagues worst in shots and chances conceded so I really like Sunderland to pull a bit of an upset here.  I could see this having a 1-0 set piece goal written all over it.  For Sunderland Van Aanholt (2.6k) offers a good differential punt for a clean sheet, and also gets forward well.  Other than that you can grab Larsson (6.2k) or Wickham (4.7k) if you need a value differential as both are in the top 25 for midfielders and forwards in my model but there are options with similar price and better match-ups available.  For the Swans I'd seriously recommend staying away all together as this has trap game written all over it, however Fabianski(3.7k) offers a good cheap GK option if you need to save money.  Also if you are taking a punt on him you might as well stack him with Rangel(3.6k) or Taylor(3.4k) as they are mid priced defenders.  For offense Bony (6k) is one of my highest rated forwards, but I've jumped off the bandwagon for him in results oriented fashion for at least the time being till they are back at home.  Again all together I'd just recommend avoiding the Swans.

Arsenal vs Spuds

Being an Arsenal fan, and having Spurs abject performance last week potentially cost me piles of money, I'd like nothing more than Arsenal to give them the business in this game.  Arsenal are coming off their best game of the season against a good defensive Villa team, so I really like one of Welbeck(8.6k) or Sanchez(8.4k) in this game as they both rate extremely high in my models.  For the midfield I've temporarily jumped off the Ramsey(6.9k) badwagon until he regains some of his form, but he is still rated significantly higher than Ozil(8k).  Interestingly enough, I have Cazorla(4.7k) as the highest rated of the arsenal midfielders and has the potential to be an amazing differential as most players will take Ozil or Ramsey if they want someone from the arsenal midfield.  For Spurs? Fuck em all, if you plan on picking any of them I hope you lose anyway. (Eriksen or Lamela are the only picks you should even start to consider if you make it down that road).