Importance of Fixtures

A brief introduction on using game odds to select the best fixtures to choose your players from and an explanation on why it is effective.

My approach to team selection is that of a top down, macro first ideology.  The first thing I do on every game week is pull up the fixture odds (see footer for notes on decimal odds) on statto and figure out which fixtures have one team as heavy favorites.

Once you've found the games that have teams as a large favorite you can figure out how likely they are to be blowouts by looking at the respective teams offensive and defensive performances recently and also the over/under goals scored line.  Once you've identified the teams with the most favorable fixtures you can start looking at their players to see who would be the best selections for your squad.

This also works for picking out your defense as you can target teams that have favorable odds against teams with poor offensive records and stats.

It can be beneficial to stack players from teams with favorable fixtures as when they do end up being a blow out you can get huge point hauls.  This occurs when you have a one player assisting and another scoring, or with defense having multiple players with Clean Sheet points and a goalie who gets the win bonus.

Another thing of note that is hugely important is home field advantage.  A general rule of thumb is you should go for players from less popular home teams versus heavy favorite teams on the road.  This is a great place to pick up differentials in tournament style contests.  What typically happens is a team will be overly favored due to them being a fairly "public" team and oddsmakers will over adjust to compensate for the action on that side of the line.  Be very wary of this, and look for value picks on home teams that may only be slight favorites instead.

A quick note regarding decimal odds.  Unlike american odds most soccer fixture have the odds listed as decimals.  It is confusing at first but once you get used to them it is very easy to calculate the percentages. Decimal odds are basically saying what do you win if you were to bet a dollar on that outcome.  To calculate the outcome % simply divide 1 by the decimal value listed.  Example Team A is 1.83 to at home win vs Team B - 1/1.83 =  54.6% chance to win for Team A.