The Weekend Review

Review of the weekends action.  Who were the busts, and the money makers.

Gameweek 8

Another game slate in the books, and another nice winning weekend.  I had two lineups in the top 20 of all the big DK contests minus the $200 one. and completely crushed all my contests on StatClash.  Ended up about +500 when all was said and done.  Sadly Cisse missing two sitters cost me a couple hundred dollars.  My total winnings so far since starting Daily Fantasy only a month or so ago is up to about 1.5k with 50% ROI, and 75% winning percentage in Heads Up matches.  If this keeps up at anywhere close to that rate my bankroll will continue to skyrocket and I should be playing the nosebleeds in ~2 months or so.


What Went Right

Southampton

Well, the Saints again have paid back my faith in them, especially Tadic.  Every week so far I've been high on Tadic and had him in multiple lineups, and he finally fulfilled his potential notching a whopping 40+ point haul.  Pelle also had a great game getting 33 points of his own.  Unfortunately extra points were missed because apparently the 4th goal was counted as an own goal.  Thus Bertrand didn't get an assist and Pelle or Tadic (I can't remember who) didn't get credit for the goal.  Not much more to say that I haven't already said about this team, although I think some of their prices may rise and it could be time to start fading them.

Everton's Defense

Even though my model predicted Villa to have to goals it was the one game I went against its predictions.  With Coleman returning, and knowing Everton's poor defensive record had a lot to do with how tough their schedule was, I decided to invest in the Everton defense stack in one of my line ups.  Unfortunately it was the lineup that was paired with Chelsea players and not any of my more successful picks.  Expect Baines to be a must have almost every fixture.  With McCarthy returning soon he will help defensively so Coleman/Baines/Howard stacks when at home will definitely be something I will target.

Aguero

Although Aguero wasn't involved in DK or StatClash games he continues to confirm my feeling that he is the best striker in the league.  Had him in Mondogoal lineups and boy did he deliver!

West Ham

The only away team I backed this weekend and they put up some good points against Burnley.  Sakho continues to make a case for the best mid priced forward, and Downing as a mid priced mid fielder.

Arsenal Offense

It wasn't a great outing for the Gunners, but their offense still produced some points.  Cazorla, Sanchez, and Welbeck all had double digit hauls.  Welbeck did worry a bit as he didn't have great production before his goal.  I'd definitely recommend avoiding him for cash games and using Sanchez instead as a rule of thumb, but for GPPs he will be great as he is capable of multi goal hauls if he gets good service.  Cazorla is going to continue to be a must have as long as Ozil is out.  With Arsenal's favorable run of fixtures I expect him to have a big week sooner or later.

Newcastle

A shut out and a win for Newcastle was pretty nice.  Unfortunately Cisse missed two sitters, which is massively unlucky.  It may have been a favorable fixture, so I'm not completely ready to ride the Newcastle bandwagon, but as they improve they will definitely warrant consideration in future weeks.


What Went Wrong

Lineup Brain Farts

Hangovers are bad.  I somehow put Costa and Mane in lineups even after reading all the team sheets in the morning.  No more drinking heavily for me on nights before game days.

Willian/Remy

I'm hesitant to include this here since it will be a little results oriented.  Both players rate well in my model but had poor performances.  I faded Chelsea for the most part, but these two hurt what could have been my best lineup as it had a full Everton defensive stack.  Had I swapped out Fabregas/Willian/Remy for Cork, Tadic, and Pelle, I would have won all the monies.  I think it was still a good decision to include them and in a game where Chelsea scores two and neither of them contributed it is simply a bit unlucky.


Observations

Predictive Model

My shot and conversion regression model had an amazing weekend getting very close to almost all the scores.  It basically nailed 4/7 almost exactly, and predicted a comfortable Southampton win as well.  I may start including some sports betting as the season goes to get more mileage out of it.

Also, my player prediction model again continues to shine.  There weren't any glaringly obvious value picks, but it did identify some great differentials in Cork and Obertan who performed well.

Fading Bandwagons

It is extremely important to identify when to jump off bandwagon players and teams.  Although Chelsea won 2-1, they didn't put up the performance most people were expected.  I actually wanted Costa to start so I could have faded him knowing he would be widely owned.

Also I was able to identify avoiding Sunderland at all costs, which is something other people might not have done after their 3-1 win last week vs Stoke in addition to their multiple clean sheets this season.

Building Lineups Before Gametime

I went into this gameweek with a plan to only build my cash lineup beforehand and to build my GPP lineups when rosters went live.  Even with my hangover I felt it helped greatly and I didn't have a single lineup score below 100, as well as notched my highest scoring lineup to date (170, previously 156).