The Weekend Review

Review of the weekends action.  Who were the busts, and the money makers.

Gameweek 5

This will be my first entry in my gameweek review column.  The main focus will be going over what assumptions I was right about and which I was completely off on.  I will also bring up some observations from the gameweek that will be worth looking into going forward.

What Went Right

Leighton Baines

My strongest predicted lineups were based around Everton and Spurs games.  One of the things I was planning on banking on this season will be Leighton Baines consisted output from defense.  Given his set piece and penalty duty, along with being a very attack minded player makes him near fixture proof.  The down side to him is Everton's defense is terrible, so there will always be some risk involved if he has a complete dud of a game.  However given how strong Everton are offensively he should put out enough points given his price tag to warrant being picked up consistently.  If his price rises too much though you might start to look to drop him (The sweet spot is probably somewhere around 5000 on draftkings since you are aiming for 2.5 points per $ spent when you divide a players price by 1000).

Southampton 

Southampton seems to be a pretty legit team this year.  Pelle and Tadic look to be great fantasy assets on a regular basis as their stats back them to be prime for big point hauls.  Also they look to have one of the better defenses in the premier league.  Clyne and Bertrand both offer great options and Forster is appealing as well.  Personally I prefer Bertrand over Clyne as his stats indicate he is prime for a big point haul where as most people are currently piling on Clyne.  Soton have some favorable fixtures so expect their players to grow in popularity over the next couple weeks.

Diega Costa

I decided to fade Diego Costa this week, and my choice was vindicated as he was snuffed out by the City defense.  One thing to understand about Chelsea and Mourinho is they set up very defensively on the road when they are matched with competent squads.  Fading Diega Costa on the road vs good squads is going to be something I will be doing regularly this year.  However when they are playing vs sub par teams he becomes basically a must have starter so don't go overboard with avoiding him.

Ulloa

Ulloa was the best differential of the weekend and had spurs not been awful he might have carried me to the 10k first prize on Draft Kings.  Ulloa is making a very strong case as one of the few fixture proof players this season as he looked dangerous all game and scored twice vs Man U.  Having shown the ability to score on the road as well vs stout defenses he might be a must have this upcoming week against a Palace team in a game that I could see being a real shootout.

Sterling

Raheem Sterling may be the most fixture proof player in the EPL this year as even when his team is playing terribly he has the ability to contribute and be dangerous.  Liverpool seems to be suffering massively from Sturridge's absence, and when he comes back pairing the two could provide massive dividends against bad opposition.

Welbeck

Being an Arsenal fan I was worried I was being too biased with regards to Welbeck.  The stats and eyetest however made me inclined to think he was very unlucky to have not scored yet.  With Ozil shining in the 10 role, and Sanchez hopefully coming back into the team next week stocking up on Arsenal could be the way to go even with Spurs coming to town next week.

Burnley Defense

Aside from being unable to score or win games, Burnley's defense provided a great returns last week due to their low cost.  As long as their price stays down they are a great gamble when they have home games to try and stack bigger names elsewhere on your roster.

Newcastle Defense

Newcastle has been leaking goals all season and I banked on that again with picking Jelavic.  It paid off wonderfully as he scored a beauty of a goal.  One of the teams I look to pick against every week and grab opposing forwards (this worked wonderfully with Pelle last week).  The other team in this boat would be QPR who has been smashed a handful of times already this season.

What Went Wrong

Spurs

Wow I couldn't have whiffed on this game any harder.  Lloris and Adebayor combined for 8.75 points on DK and Eriksen had a marginal 8.  If spurs had won 1-0 with Eriksen or Adebayor involved in the goal I would have most likely gotten top 5 and possibly won the DK 50k contest.  Spurs were the biggest favorites of the weekend going into the match and playing at home vs a West Brom team who has one of the worst offenses in the league thus far.  Had you put a gun to my head and told me to guarantee one winner of the weekend this would have been the match I picked.  They were completely outplayed and looked lost in the final 3rd vs WBA, which is unfortunate because the stats suggest spurs are one of the more dangerous attacking teams in the league thus far.  I may have to re-evaluate and back off on Spurs and chalk it up to small sample size with QPR grossly inflating some of their attacking stats.  This may be a good weekend to back Arsenal vs Spurs for a blowout, but I don't want to knee jerk over-adjust too far.

Other Observations

Man United Defense

Look for Man United to leak goals this year as they completely ignored upgrading defenders in the transfer market and they are already short on depth.  Opposing forwards should offer good value against the Man United defense.

Liverpool Defense

I could put this in the what went right section, but I wasn' t able to cash in on my Enner Valencia pick against Liverpool.  Liverpool has looked soft at the back so far this year, presumably because of all the change over and possible communication issues.  In addition to that Mignolet seems to be a vampire, ie Allergic to crosses, and poor positioning coming out.  Like Man United look to back opposing strikers against Liverpool early on in the year until Rodgers is able to get them drilled down.

West Ham and Crystal Palace Offense

Both of these teams should be looked at for some cheap offensive options.  Zaha, Puncheon, Bolasie from Palace, and Sakho, Valencia and Downing from West Ham.  I particularly like the Leicester City and Crystal Palace match next week to be a goal fest.