Had a pretty good overall weekend as my cash lineup did very well coming in at 109 points, and cashed in half my entries in the $27 including a top 20 roster with 119 pts. I profited around $240 dollars so it was a nice haul
What Went Right
Again the Saints delivered with Bertrand, Tadic, and Pelle having pretty good point hauls. The real hero of the Saints however was the last minute value pick of Sadio Mane! I had my eye on him when I saw he was going to be in the projected lineup, and at a 3k price he was a must have. He more than delivered pulling in over 6 times the points per dollar making him one of the MVPs of the weekend. Sadly Forster being unable to keep a clean sheet hurt a little bit, but wasn't a huge loss.
Chelsea again delivered offensively and defensively with Costa, Courtois, and Ivanovic having great games. I missed out on the points from Oscar and Willian sadly, but I will address that in the what went wrong section. I expect most weeks Chelsea players will be a must have in some capacity, and I'm cringing at the thought of picking them next week in their tie against my beloved arsenal.
I missed out on Frazier Campbell however my mid price forward (Sakho) did well so it wasn't a huge loss. Puncheon and Bolasie both gave respectable point grabs pulling in almost 3x and 2x points per dollar respectively. One thing I'm noticing is that it is very easy to find mid priced midfielders who get great hauls because cross / shot points are so consistently predictable. I may switch up my strategy and start avoiding luxury midfielders all together and spend those dollars on luxury striker options
I heavily advised people from shying away from picking any of the Swans. It turns out I was partially right as Fabianski and their outside defenders had decent hauls given the shutout. Avoiding Bony/Siggy/Dyer proved a good move for anyone that listened.
What Went Wrong
So I'm and idiot and somehow didn't have Willian included in my spread sheets and missed out on a potential huge haul as I had planned on using Schurrle in 3 lineups. Had I done the smart thing and swapped him with Willian I could of possibly had a massive weekend with 3 lineups in the top 5/10. I did rightfully identify Oscar as a late value point but instead went with Hazard and Fabregas for my Chelsea midfield choices. Thankfully my exposure to them was separate and limited to only two lineups. They were both bad picks and I went against my model picking them as neither is in the top 20 for midfielders. I went back and added Willian in and he ranked about 15th in my model so I would have definitely went with him had I seen that. Live and Learn I guess.
I had a lot of exposure to Di Maria with 3 lineups and also had exposure separately to Rooney/RvP/Falcao. Rooney had the best haul of the bunch but is an idiot and got red carded. This brings me back to potentially staying away from luxury midfielders. Mid priced options can have such decent point hauls that it might not be worth over spending for players who are 8k+ in midfield.
The Centerback Experiment
I wanted to take a punt in one lineup grabbing two super cheap center backs that were playing in games that might be shutouts (Mangala/Koscielny). Kosc being a good set piece threat and each only being 2k would have only needed about 5-6 points to pay off. Sadly Mangala had a woeful day, and Kosc only had 3.75 pts, which still is almost 2x and not terrible. I may still try this again as the extra 2-4k I save can be piled into forward options, and they don't need many points to be successful. This would only be limited to one lineup of my GPP lineups and not a cash game strategy.
The Mid Priced Midfielder
It looks like mid priced midfielders may be the way to go and just avoid luxury picks all together. A mid priced option can just get points too easily to waste extra money on a luxury option. Most wingers will be able to get 10-12 points fairly easily without even scoring or assisting. That basically is 2x for any sub 6k midfielder so you are almost freerolling at that point. This also inclines me to use a midfielder in the flex spot for my cash game lineups since they are about getting more reliable point hauls.
Chelsea and Southampton
It looks like both of these teams are going to continue to be fantasy goldmines. Costa is basically a must have for almost every game as is Tadic for midfield.
The Late Swap
I expressed this in my basics section on how important it is to watch for lineups before the game. I unfortunately didn't pick up Caballero as I don't like road defenses, however even though he let in 2 goals his 4 saves more than made up for it. Sanchez not being in Arsenal's XI also cost me a bit as to late swap I had limited options and ended up having to downgrade Gibbs to Chambers to pick up Welbeck. Unfortunately Welbeck whiffed his chance and didn't even get a touch on the ball before Chamberlain scored, and Chambers missed a phenomenal volley or they might have been in the what went right section. Ultimately what I'm trying to say is being able to monitor lineups an hour before game time to make swaps is so unbelievably massive. You can get great late bargains (most of my twitter late value recommends did fantastic), and you can save yourself from having a player who isn't playing. Every week I will tweet out lineups and make last minute value recommendations so make sure you follow @soccerdfs or have the homepage of www.soccerdfs.com loaded up.